Since President Trump got elected to power, a great number of economic predictions have been suggesting a forthcoming economic drop. From predicting a Trump Recession to a complete economic slowdown, the reports mostly were not in favor of a positive outcome. However, as startling as it seems, the actual reports have outdone all the predictions with ground-breaking statistics.
According to President Trump, the US is the largest economy of all and is currently on a historic high. He claims that it is the greatest in the history of America and is getting even stronger. In reality, yes, it definitely has outdone all the predictions with a new high, but it has also been better in the past.
Surprisingly impressive statistics
Amidst all the tensions of Trade War, the pandemic, and unsettling market scenario, the economic growth is still on the rise. As per the reports, a total of 335,000 jobs were assumed to be created in the starting month of 2020. However, it peaked at 546,000, which is more than 60 percent higher than the expectations according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Comparing this consensus to President Obama’s period, the job growth average for a month is still lower by 2000. But it is still increasing and is better than the predictions of economists. After the recession of 2008, the growth rate of jobs is still much better than anyone expected.
When it comes to GDP, however, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the annual average growth is low. For the year 2019, the average growth peaked at 2.3% and ended at 2.1% in the fourth quarter. When compared to the peak of 5.5% accomplished in 2014’s second quarter under Obama, Trump’s economy still has much to achieve.
What Congressional Budget Office’s Forecast has to say now?
Judging from the given Obama’s economic policies, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) made assumptions of a total of 2 million new jobs by now. However, reportedly, there were about 6.9 million by February 2020. These astonishingly high numbers under Trump’s administration have surpassed the CBO’s predictions to a great number.
As a result, the current US economy is about $600 billion larger than what it was expected to be. Also, predicting form the uncertainties and market volatility, the CBO predicted that unemployment and inflation would soar by now. But the new statistics has marked a new record in the history of the US, ousting all the predictions made.
Reports from the US Labor Department said that fifty years later, the economy has recorded a drop in the unemployment rate by hitting 3% in the year 2019. For even particular groups like Hispanic Americans, African Americans, etc., the unemployment rates have stooped the lowest in the history of the US.
Wages and Stock Markets
Continuing on the unexpected parts of the story, taking 2019’s Trade Wars and high fluctuations into account, the Stock market predictions looked quite unfavorable. However, even though the market looked grim, the gains have only seen an increase in the year 2020. With more investors and better growth opportunities, the situation looks much better than expected.
Coming to the wages, given inflation, the increase in wages was recorded to be 0.6% by the end of 2019. It peaked at 1.9% amidst all the economic distress, which is thus considerably good. However, it is still lower than that achieved under President Obama (2%) in the year 2015.
For the average household income, not much of a change has been recorded. It is definitely on the upward trajectory but is very slow-paced for now. With the ongoing pandemic distress, the current situation is quite unpredictable, but it is still expected to retain the growth as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In the year 2017, since President Trump came to power, the reports and predictions weren’t positive nor encouraging. With most of the US forecasts predicting a recession and an economic slowdown, the results are shockingly quite the opposite. Not just the economy has been retained, but significant growth has also been observed under President Trump.
This dramatic reversal from the time of Obama is undoubtedly positive and exceedingly better than expectations. Outdoing all the economists that expected a blow to the economy, the results look far more beneficial. With about three years of press announcing a forthcoming doom, President Trump has certainly shocked us all!