New election polls have begun around the country. Polls’ results are always great for surprises and twists. Substantial drama, manipulations, and strategies are underway for the outcome of the November elections.
The polls in Ohio astonished everyone, with current President Donald Trump having a narrow lead over Ex-Vice President Joe Biden. The new survey shocked everyone for obvious reasons.
The Morning Consult Political Intelligence revealed that Trump and Biden are separated by a margin of three percent (3%).
This margin is very close and might mean that anything could happen during the November elections. The results proved that the results in Ohio could toss the entire situation out of place with less than a hundred days before the actual elections. Experts believe that both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have a remarkable chance of victory in Ohio. The final results remain unpredictable until the D-Day.
The Morning Consult Political Intelligence Strategy
The Morning Consult Political Intelligence takes polls daily, and make predictions based on a ten-day average. A state-level result is computed from the rolling percentage and is proven to be very accurate. The result generates head to head possibilities for the upcoming presidential elections.
Computations around Ohio
The potential size of votes in Ohio is roughly 1,700 on the data collected between the 17th of July and the 26th of July. The marginal error during this computation is about two and a half percent (2.5%) projected in terms of percentage points. During the calculation, some of the factors considered are age, gender, race, population density, marital status, homeownership, and history of presidential votes.
Trump managed to secure forty-eight percent (48%) of the votes while Joe Biden secured forty-five percent (45%) of the votes in the Ohio poll. This result understandably means that Trump enjoys an edge over Biden in Ohio. However, the results are bound to change in the next hundred days. Apart from these figures, five percent (5%) are unable to finalize their vote, and two percent (2%) are willing to vote for someone else.
It is quite evident a partisan line breaks the support. Nearly ninety percent (90%)of the population supports Joe Biden, and eighty-nine percent (89%) of the supporters are inclined to vote for Donald Trump. Hardly six percent (6%) of the Republicans are inspired to vote for Biden. This result is less compared to the eight percent (8%) of Democrats who are interested in voting for Donald Trump.
Independent voters are split evenly. Around forty-one percent (41%) of the votes are for Trump and forty percent (40%) of the votes are for Biden. Nearly twelve percent (12%) of the population remained undecided, and eight percent (8%) picked another candidate.
The Morning Consult Political Intelligence polls distinctly shows that Ohio is a very competitive state. In 2016, President Donald Trump managed to win in Ohio by eight percentage (8%) points.
Apart from the Morning Consult Political Intelligence poll, few other predictions also show a thin line between the two candidates. For example, the “YouGov” poll and the “CBS” poll show a tight race between the two have a marginal error of 3.6 percentage points. These polls were taken between 21 July and 24 July, where Trump was ahead Biden by one percent (1%).
Indeed, Ohio will be a “surprising state” during the November 2020 elections too. Trump has invested thousands and thousands of dollars on television advertisements. Most of the ads portray Trump as a competitive candidate for the upcoming elections.
Beyond the traditional groups, both the Republican Voters and Lincoln Project are fighting against President Donald Trump. They are investing a lot of time and money on strategies against the President. However, they are also quite careful in exerting most of their efforts on fruitful states, which include Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina.